Is a heat pump worth it in South Dakota?

At South Dakota prices a typical heat pump heats a house for about $1,684 a year, against $1,062 for a 95% gas furnace; it wins clearly against propane, oil and electric resistance heat, and it also replaces the air conditioner.

Do I need a cold-climate heat pump in South Dakota?

In parts of the state, yes. Sioux Falls, Rapid City, Aberdeen have winters where an ENERGY STAR cold-climate model is the safer choice. Check your city's guide below.

Severe winters

Best heat pumps for South Dakota

In South Dakota a gas furnace still heats for a little less, but a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner.

A typical heat pump costs about $1,684 a year to heat a house, against $1,062 for a 95% gas furnace, at 14.3¢/kWh and $0.95/therm. Parts of the state need a cold-climate model.

Cheapest to run in South Dakota

Best 3-ton central heat pump

TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL

3 ton central · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 29.7
HSPF2: 12.2
Per year: $1,337

Lowest yearly running cost in the state's climate.

Full specs and running cost

Best 12,000 BTU mini-split

MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W

12,000 BTU mini-split · MSOP series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year: $383

Lowest yearly running cost in the state's climate.

Full specs and running cost

City guides

Each guide uses that city's own climate data. Typical yearly cost of a 3-ton heat pump, heating plus cooling:

Sioux Falls · severe winters$1,837/yr
Rapid City · severe winters$1,776/yr
Aberdeen · severe winters$2,020/yr

More for South Dakota

Heat pump vs. gas, propane and oil$1,684 vs. $1,062 gas

Natural gas furnace, 95% AFUE$1,062/yr
Natural gas furnace, 80% AFUE$1,261/yr
Heat pump (typical, 9.0 HSPF2)$1,684/yr
Propane furnace, 95% AFUE$2,110/yr
Electric baseboard or furnace$4,442/yr
Heating oil, 85% AFUE$5,389/yr

Top 8: 3-ton central heat pumpsfrom $1,337/yr

TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL12.2 HSPF2 · $1,337/yr
LG KUSXA361A10.5 HSPF2 · $1,564/yr
Trane 5TWV0X36A110.5 HSPF2 · $1,578/yr
Lennox SL22KLV-036-230A10.5 HSPF2 · $1,581/yr
Lennox EL21KLV-036-230A10.4 HSPF2 · $1,598/yr
GE NS21H36MA5-**A10.4 HSPF2 · $1,598/yr
LG KUSXB361A10.3 HSPF2 · $1,600/yr
SAMYOU VUH36-VA6BA(O)10.2 HSPF2 · $1,626/yr

All 3-ton heat pumps

Top 8: 12,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $383/yr

MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W14.5 HSPF2 · $383/yr
Goodman MSH123G26MCAA14.5 HSPF2 · $383/yr
Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP113.7 HSPF2 · $399/yr
Fujitsu AOUG12LZAS112.9 HSPF2 · $424/yr
Fujitsu AOUH12KZAH112.7 HSPF2 · $429/yr
Carrier 37MPRAQ12AA312.7 HSPF2 · $430/yr
Fujitsu AOUG12LZAH112.7 HSPF2 · $430/yr
Mainline ML12HP230CALH-O12.7 HSPF2 · $430/yr

All 12,000 BTU mini-splits

Climate in the state's citiesNOAA normals

Sioux Falls24.9 nights ≤ 0°F · 15 days ≥ 90°F
Rapid City17.7 nights ≤ 0°F · 32 days ≥ 90°F
Aberdeen38.5 nights ≤ 0°F · 15 days ≥ 90°F

Questions2

Is a heat pump worth it in South Dakota?: At South Dakota prices a typical heat pump heats a house for about $1,684 a year, against $1,062 for a 95% gas furnace; it wins clearly against propane, oil and electric resistance heat, and it also replaces the air conditioner.
Do I need a cold-climate heat pump in South Dakota?: In parts of the state, yes. Sioux Falls, Rapid City, Aberdeen have winters where an ENERGY STAR cold-climate model is the safer choice. Check your city's guide below.

Running cost calculator

Pre-filled with South Dakota prices. Pick your city and what you heat with today.

Heat pump $1,217/yrCosts more by $188/yrSee details ↓

1. Where you live

StateCityElectricity ¢ per kWh

Adjust heating and cooling hours

Filled in from your city's climate. Change them if you run the system much more or less than usual.

Cooling hours full-load hours per yearHeating hours full-load hours per year

2. The heat pump pick a model or type its ratings

Find a model (fills in the ratings below)

SEER2 cooling efficiencyHSPF2 heating efficiencyCooling capacity BTU/hHeating capacity BTU/h

3. What it replaces

Current heatingFurnace efficiency (AFUE %)Gas price, $/thermCurrent coolingOld AC rating SEER2 (10 ≈ 15+ years old)

4. Price replace the example with your quote

Installed price, $Rebates and incentives, $ utility, state

Heat pump, per year: $1,217
Current system, per year: $1,029
Costs more per year: $188
Payback: No payback
Net after 10 years: -$10,876

Cooling $94Heating $1,123Electricity used: 8,527 kWhSaved vs. a minimum-efficiency heat pump: $262

Estimates use the unit's rated SEER2 and HSPF2, full-load hours derived from NOAA 1991-2020 degree days, average residential electricity prices from the U.S. EIA (12 months to July 2026) and fuel prices from EIA (2025 for natural gas, week of 2026-10-05 for propane and heating oil). Very cold days that need backup heat are not modelled. Federal minimum for comparison: 14.3 SEER2 / 7.5 HSPF2.