Do heat pumps work in Rapid City winters?

Rapid City averages 18 nights a year at or below 0°F, so pick a cold-climate certified model and check its output at 5°F. The average winter low is 14°F, and the heating season adds up to 7,252 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).

How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Rapid City?

A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $1,655 of electricity a year for heating and $121 for cooling in Rapid City, at the South Dakota average of 14.3¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.

Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Rapid City?

Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $1,655 a year with a typical heat pump versus $1,044 with a 95% gas furnace (South Dakota averages: 14.3¢/kWh, $0.95/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.

What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Rapid City?

With average insulation, roughly a 5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 27,600 BTU/h and the heating load 60,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Severe winters · Mild summers

Best heat pumps for Rapid City, SD

Rapid City averages 18 nights a year at or below 0°F, so pick a cold-climate certified model and check its output at 5°F.

A typical heat pump costs about $1,655 a year to heat a house here and $121 to cool it. A 95% gas furnace would cost $1,044 for the same heat.

Nights at or below 0°F18 a year
Nights at or below 20°F88 a year
Days at or above 90°F32 a year
Average winter low14°F
Average summer high83°F
Electricity14.3¢ per kWh
Natural gas$0.95 per therm

Cheapest to run in Rapid City

Ranked by yearly electricity cost in this climate, so the balance of heating and cooling efficiency is the one that matters here. Cold-climate certified models only.

Best 12,000 BTU mini-split

MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W

12,000 BTU mini-split · MSOP series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $367

For one large room.

Full specs and running cost

Best 24,000 BTU mini-split

SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG

24,000 BTU mini-split · SHC Series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $735

For open-plan floor or small home.

Full specs and running cost

Best 3-ton central heat pump

TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL

3 ton central · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 29.7
HSPF2: 12.2
Per year here: $1,290

For typical whole house.

Full specs and running cost

Running cost calculator for Rapid City

Pre-filled with Rapid City's climate and South Dakota prices. Pick a model, tell it what you heat with today, and add your quote.

Heat pump $1,172/yrCosts more by $209/yrSee details ↓

1. Where you live

StateCityElectricity ¢ per kWh

Adjust heating and cooling hours

Filled in from your city's climate. Change them if you run the system much more or less than usual.

Cooling hours full-load hours per yearHeating hours full-load hours per year

2. The heat pump pick a model or type its ratings

Find a model (fills in the ratings below)

SEER2 cooling efficiencyHSPF2 heating efficiencyCooling capacity BTU/hHeating capacity BTU/h

3. What it replaces

Current heatingFurnace efficiency (AFUE %)Gas price, $/thermCurrent coolingOld AC rating SEER2 (10 ≈ 15+ years old)

4. Price replace the example with your quote

Installed price, $Rebates and incentives, $ utility, state

Heat pump, per year: $1,172
Current system, per year: $963
Costs more per year: $209
Payback: No payback
Net after 10 years: -$11,086

Cooling $68Heating $1,104Electricity used: 8,213 kWhSaved vs. a minimum-efficiency heat pump: $248

Estimates use the unit's rated SEER2 and HSPF2, full-load hours derived from NOAA 1991-2020 degree days, average residential electricity prices from the U.S. EIA (12 months to July 2026) and fuel prices from EIA (2025 for natural gas, week of 2026-10-05 for propane and heating oil). Very cold days that need backup heat are not modelled. Federal minimum for comparison: 14.3 SEER2 / 7.5 HSPF2.

More for Rapid City

Top 5 12,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $367/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W	27.5	14.5	$367
Goodman MSH123G26MCAA	27.5	14.5	$367
Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP1	31.5	13.7	$384
Fujitsu AOUG12LZAS1	29.4	12.9	$408
Fujitsu AOUH12KZAH1	30.5	12.7	$413

All 12,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 24,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $735/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG	27.5	14.5	$735
MDV MOD30-24HFN10-M1X	22.3	13.5	$797
Arcoaire D5CSHAH24AAK	21.2	13.5	$800
Comfort-Aire A-VHP24SA-1	21.0	13.5	$801
Mainline ML24HP230NEXH-O	22.3	13.3	$808

All 24,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 3-ton central heat pumpsfrom $1,290/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL	29.7	12.2	$1,290
LG KUSXA361A	23.5	10.5	$1,506
Trane 5TWV0X36A1	21.0	10.5	$1,517
Lennox SL22KLV-036-230A	20.5	10.5	$1,519
Lennox EL21KLV-036-230A	20.0	10.4	$1,535

All 3-ton central heat pumps

Heat pump vs. gas, propane and oilgas is cheaper to run

Yearly cost to heat a typical house (36,000 BTU/h of heat, 2,900 full-load hours) at South Dakota prices.

Natural gas furnace, 95% AFUE$1,044/yr
Natural gas furnace, 80% AFUE$1,240/yr
Heat pump (typical, 9.0 HSPF2)$1,655/yr
Propane furnace, 95% AFUE$2,074/yr
Electric baseboard or furnace$4,366/yr
Heating oil, 85% AFUE$5,298/yr

Electricity and natural gas: South Dakota residential averages from the U.S. EIA; propane and heating oil: latest EIA weekly prices.

Month by monthpeak $288 in January

Heating and cooling degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals) and what a typical 3-ton heat pump costs in each month at 14.3¢/kWh.

Month	Heating DD	Cooling DD	Cost
January	1,260	0	$288
February	1,091	0	$249
March	918	0	$209
April	634	1	$145
May	349	11	$82
June	93	81	$37
July	13	244	$52
August	25	205	$47
September	175	62	$52
October	560	3	$128
November	912	0	$208
December	1,223	0	$279

What size heat pump for a Rapid City home?5 ton for 2,000 sq ft

1,000 sq ft house2.5 ton · heating load 30,000 BTU/h
1,500 sq ft house4 ton · heating load 45,000 BTU/h
2,000 sq ft house5 ton · heating load 60,000 BTU/h
2,500 sq ft house5+ ton · heating load 75,000 BTU/h

Average insulation, 8 ft ceilings. Size calculator for your own home

Questions4

Do heat pumps work in Rapid City winters?: Rapid City averages 18 nights a year at or below 0°F, so pick a cold-climate certified model and check its output at 5°F. The average winter low is 14°F, and the heating season adds up to 7,252 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).
How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Rapid City?: A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $1,655 of electricity a year for heating and $121 for cooling in Rapid City, at the South Dakota average of 14.3¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.
Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Rapid City?: Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $1,655 a year with a typical heat pump versus $1,044 with a 95% gas furnace (South Dakota averages: 14.3¢/kWh, $0.95/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.
What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Rapid City?: With average insulation, roughly a 5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 27,600 BTU/h and the heating load 60,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Nearby cities

Climate: NOAA 1991-2020 normals, station RAPID CITY RGNL AP (13 km away).