Do heat pumps work in Portland winters?

Winters in Portland are moderate - about 1.3 nights a year at or below 20°F - and any modern variable-speed heat pump handles them. The average winter low is 36°F, and the heating season adds up to 4,104 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).

How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Portland?

A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $1,028 of electricity a year for heating and $115 for cooling in Portland, at the Oregon average of 15.6¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.

Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Portland?

Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $1,028 a year with a typical heat pump versus $1,007 with a 95% gas furnace (Oregon averages: 15.6¢/kWh, $1.61/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.

What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Portland?

With average insulation, roughly a 4-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 27,600 BTU/h and the heating load 46,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Moderate winters · Mild summers

Best heat pumps for Portland, OR

Winters in Portland are moderate - about 1.3 nights a year at or below 20°F - and any modern variable-speed heat pump handles them.

A typical heat pump costs about $1,028 a year to heat a house here and $115 to cool it. A 95% gas furnace would cost $1,007 for the same heat.

This guide also covers Vancouver, WA, which share Portland's weather station and climate data.

Nights at or below 0°F0 a year
Nights at or below 20°F1.3 a year
Days at or above 90°F15 a year
Average winter low36°F
Average summer high80°F
Electricity15.6¢ per kWh
Natural gas$1.61 per therm

Cheapest to run in Portland

Ranked by yearly electricity cost in this climate, so the balance of heating and cooling efficiency is the one that matters here.

Best 12,000 BTU mini-split

MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W

12,000 BTU mini-split · MSOP series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $237

For one large room.

Full specs and running cost

Best 24,000 BTU mini-split

SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG

24,000 BTU mini-split · SHC Series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $473

For open-plan floor or small home.

Full specs and running cost

Best 3-ton central heat pump

TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL

3 ton central · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 29.7
HSPF2: 12.2
Per year here: $825

For typical whole house.

Full specs and running cost

Running cost calculator for Portland

Pre-filled with Portland's climate and Oregon prices. Pick a model, tell it what you heat with today, and add your quote.

Heat pump $751/yrYou save $177/yrSee details ↓

1. Where you live

StateCityElectricity ¢ per kWh

Adjust heating and cooling hours

Filled in from your city's climate. Change them if you run the system much more or less than usual.

Cooling hours full-load hours per yearHeating hours full-load hours per year

2. The heat pump pick a model or type its ratings

Find a model (fills in the ratings below)

SEER2 cooling efficiencyHSPF2 heating efficiencyCooling capacity BTU/hHeating capacity BTU/h

3. What it replaces

Current heatingFurnace efficiency (AFUE %)Gas price, $/thermCurrent coolingOld AC rating SEER2 (10 ≈ 15+ years old)

4. Price replace the example with your quote

Installed price, $Rebates and incentives, $ utility, state

Heat pump, per year: $751
Current system, per year: $928
You save per year: $177
Payback: Over 30 years
Net after 10 years: -$7,231

Cooling $65Heating $686Electricity used: 4,820 kWhSaved vs. a minimum-efficiency heat pump: $163

Estimates use the unit's rated SEER2 and HSPF2, full-load hours derived from NOAA 1991-2020 degree days, average residential electricity prices from the U.S. EIA (12 months to July 2026) and fuel prices from EIA (2025 for natural gas, week of 2026-10-05 for propane and heating oil). Very cold days that need backup heat are not modelled. Federal minimum for comparison: 14.3 SEER2 / 7.5 HSPF2.

More for Portland

Top 5 12,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $237/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W	27.5	14.5	$237
Goodman MSH123G26MCAA	27.5	14.5	$237
Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP1	31.5	13.7	$246
Fujitsu AOUG12LZAS1	29.4	12.9	$261
Fujitsu AOUH12KZAH1	30.5	12.7	$264

All 12,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 24,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $473/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG	27.5	14.5	$473
MDV MOD30-24HFN10-M1X	22.3	13.5	$516
Arcoaire D5CSHAH24AAK	21.2	13.5	$519
Comfort-Aire A-VHP24SA-1	21.0	13.5	$519
Mainline ML24HP230NEXH-O	22.3	13.3	$523

All 24,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 3-ton central heat pumpsfrom $825/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL	29.7	12.2	$825
LG KUSXA361A	23.5	10.5	$965
Trane 5TWV0X36A1	21.0	10.5	$975
Lennox SL22KLV-036-230A	20.5	10.5	$977
LG KUSXB361A	22.0	10.3	$988

All 3-ton central heat pumps

Heat pump vs. gas, propane and oilgas is cheaper to run

Yearly cost to heat a typical house (36,000 BTU/h of heat, 1,650 full-load hours) at Oregon prices.

Natural gas furnace, 95% AFUE$1,007/yr
Heat pump (typical, 9.0 HSPF2)$1,028/yr
Natural gas furnace, 80% AFUE$1,195/yr
Propane furnace, 95% AFUE$1,827/yr
Electric baseboard or furnace$2,712/yr
Heating oil, 85% AFUE$3,014/yr

Electricity and natural gas: Oregon residential averages from the U.S. EIA; propane and heating oil: latest EIA weekly prices.

Month by monthpeak $182 in December

Heating and cooling degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals) and what a typical 3-ton heat pump costs in each month at 15.6¢/kWh.

Month	Heating DD	Cooling DD	Cost
January	718	0	$180
February	584	0	$146
March	519	0	$130
April	367	2	$92
May	196	21	$54
June	80	56	$33
July	10	171	$42
August	7	181	$43
September	61	73	$32
October	297	4	$75
November	539	0	$135
December	727	0	$182

What size heat pump for a Portland home?4 ton for 2,000 sq ft

1,000 sq ft house2 ton · heating load 23,000 BTU/h
1,500 sq ft house3 ton · heating load 34,500 BTU/h
2,000 sq ft house4 ton · heating load 46,000 BTU/h
2,500 sq ft house5 ton · heating load 57,500 BTU/h

Average insulation, 8 ft ceilings. Size calculator for your own home

Questions4

Do heat pumps work in Portland winters?: Winters in Portland are moderate - about 1.3 nights a year at or below 20°F - and any modern variable-speed heat pump handles them. The average winter low is 36°F, and the heating season adds up to 4,104 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).
How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Portland?: A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $1,028 of electricity a year for heating and $115 for cooling in Portland, at the Oregon average of 15.6¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.
Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Portland?: Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $1,028 a year with a typical heat pump versus $1,007 with a 95% gas furnace (Oregon averages: 15.6¢/kWh, $1.61/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.
What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Portland?: With average insulation, roughly a 4-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 27,600 BTU/h and the heating load 46,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Nearby cities

Climate: NOAA 1991-2020 normals, station PORTLAND INTL AP (7 km away).