Do heat pumps work in Dallas winters?

Winters in Dallas are mild, so heating efficiency matters less than cooling. The average winter low is 40°F, and the heating season adds up to 1,992 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).

How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Dallas?

A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $512 of electricity a year for heating and $745 for cooling in Dallas, at the Texas average of 16.0¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.

Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Dallas?

Yes, for heating at today's prices: about $512 a year with a typical heat pump versus $567 with a 95% gas furnace, using Texas averages of 16.0¢/kWh and $1.87/therm.

What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Dallas?

With average insulation, roughly a 3-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 35,100 BTU/h and the heating load 30,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Mild winters · Very hot summers

Best heat pumps for Dallas, TX

Winters in Dallas are mild, so heating efficiency matters less than cooling.

A typical heat pump costs about $512 a year to heat a house here and $745 to cool it. A 95% gas furnace would cost $567 for the same heat, so the heat pump is cheaper to run.

This guide also covers Garland, Mesquite and Richardson, which share Dallas's weather station and climate data.

Nights at or below 0°F0 a year
Nights at or below 20°F1.6 a year
Days at or above 90°F108 a year
Average winter low40°F
Average summer high96°F
Electricity16.0¢ per kWh
Natural gas$1.87 per therm

Cheapest to run in Dallas

Ranked by yearly electricity cost in this climate, so the balance of heating and cooling efficiency is the one that matters here.

Best 12,000 BTU mini-split

Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP1

12,000 BTU mini-split · AIRSTAGE H-Series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 31.5
HSPF2: 13.7
Per year here: $246

For one large room.

Full specs and running cost

Best 24,000 BTU mini-split

SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG

24,000 BTU mini-split · SHC Series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $519

For open-plan floor or small home.

Full specs and running cost

Best 3-ton central heat pump

TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL

3 ton central · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 29.7
HSPF2: 12.2
Per year here: $804

For typical whole house.

Full specs and running cost

Running cost calculator for Dallas

Pre-filled with Dallas's climate and Texas prices. Pick a model, tell it what you heat with today, and add your quote.

Heat pump $764/yrYou save $530/yrSee details ↓

1. Where you live

StateCityElectricity ¢ per kWh

Adjust heating and cooling hours

Filled in from your city's climate. Change them if you run the system much more or less than usual.

Cooling hours full-load hours per yearHeating hours full-load hours per year

2. The heat pump pick a model or type its ratings

Find a model (fills in the ratings below)

SEER2 cooling efficiencyHSPF2 heating efficiencyCooling capacity BTU/hHeating capacity BTU/h

3. What it replaces

Current heatingFurnace efficiency (AFUE %)Gas price, $/thermCurrent coolingOld AC rating SEER2 (10 ≈ 15+ years old)

4. Price replace the example with your quote

Installed price, $Rebates and incentives, $ utility, state

Heat pump, per year: $764
Current system, per year: $1,294
You save per year: $530
Payback: 17.0 years
Net after 10 years: -$3,701

Cooling $422Heating $341Electricity used: 4,773 kWhSaved vs. a minimum-efficiency heat pump: $237

Estimates use the unit's rated SEER2 and HSPF2, full-load hours derived from NOAA 1991-2020 degree days, average residential electricity prices from the U.S. EIA (12 months to July 2026) and fuel prices from EIA (2025 for natural gas, week of 2026-10-05 for propane and heating oil). Very cold days that need backup heat are not modelled. Federal minimum for comparison: 14.3 SEER2 / 7.5 HSPF2.

More for Dallas

Top 5 12,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $246/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP1	31.5	13.7	$246
Fujitsu AOUH12KZAH1	30.5	12.7	$259
MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W	27.5	14.5	$260
Goodman MSH123G26MCAA	27.5	14.5	$260
Fujitsu AOUG12LZAS1	29.4	12.9	$263

All 12,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 24,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $519/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG	27.5	14.5	$519
Quilt QO1-M3Z27-NC-NA	25.3	12.0	$590
MDV MOD30-24HFN10-M1X	22.3	13.5	$606
Mainline ML24HP230NEXH-O	22.3	13.3	$610
ComfortStar CHF3-24CD(O)	22.3	13.3	$610

All 24,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 3-ton central heat pumpsfrom $804/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL	29.7	12.2	$804
LG KUSXA361A	23.5	10.5	$978
LG KUSXB361A	22.0	10.3	$1,023
Trane 5TWV0X36A1	21.0	10.5	$1,042
Heil H5H3V36KAAA	22.5	9.5	$1,048

All 3-ton central heat pumps

Heat pump vs. gas, propane and oilheat pump is cheaper than gas

Yearly cost to heat a typical house (36,000 BTU/h of heat, 800 full-load hours) at Texas prices.

Heat pump (typical, 9.0 HSPF2)$512/yr
Natural gas furnace, 95% AFUE$567/yr
Natural gas furnace, 80% AFUE$673/yr
Propane furnace, 95% AFUE$1,028/yr
Electric baseboard or furnace$1,351/yr
Heating oil, 85% AFUE$1,461/yr

Electricity and natural gas: Texas residential averages from the U.S. EIA; propane and heating oil: latest EIA weekly prices.

Month by monthpeak $165 in July

Heating and cooling degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals) and what a typical 3-ton heat pump costs in each month at 16.0¢/kWh.

Month	Heating DD	Cooling DD	Cost
January	537	4	$139
February	376	11	$99
March	213	47	$66
April	65	128	$47
May	6	330	$80
June	0	548	$131
July	0	691	$165
August	0	690	$164
September	2	454	$109
October	56	183	$58
November	250	34	$73
December	487	6	$127

What size heat pump for a Dallas home?3 ton for 2,000 sq ft

1,000 sq ft house2 ton · heating load 15,000 BTU/h
1,500 sq ft house2.5 ton · heating load 22,500 BTU/h
2,000 sq ft house3 ton · heating load 30,000 BTU/h
2,500 sq ft house3.5 ton · heating load 37,500 BTU/h

Average insulation, 8 ft ceilings. Size calculator for your own home

Questions4

Do heat pumps work in Dallas winters?: Winters in Dallas are mild, so heating efficiency matters less than cooling. The average winter low is 40°F, and the heating season adds up to 1,992 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).
How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Dallas?: A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $512 of electricity a year for heating and $745 for cooling in Dallas, at the Texas average of 16.0¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.
Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Dallas?: Yes, for heating at today's prices: about $512 a year with a typical heat pump versus $567 with a 95% gas furnace, using Texas averages of 16.0¢/kWh and $1.87/therm.
What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Dallas?: With average insulation, roughly a 3-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 35,100 BTU/h and the heating load 30,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Nearby cities

Climate: NOAA 1991-2020 normals, station DALLAS LOVE FLD (8 km away).