Do heat pumps work in Burlington winters?

Burlington averages 16 nights a year at or below 0°F, so pick a cold-climate certified model and check its output at 5°F. The average winter low is 16°F, and the heating season adds up to 6,960 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).

How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Burlington?

A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $2,676 of electricity a year for heating and $228 for cooling in Burlington, at the Vermont average of 23.9¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.

Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Burlington?

Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $2,676 a year with a typical heat pump versus $1,846 with a 95% gas furnace (Vermont averages: 23.9¢/kWh, $1.74/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.

What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Burlington?

With average insulation, roughly a 5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 27,600 BTU/h and the heating load 54,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Severe winters · Mild summers

Best heat pumps for Burlington, VT

Burlington averages 16 nights a year at or below 0°F, so pick a cold-climate certified model and check its output at 5°F.

A typical heat pump costs about $2,676 a year to heat a house here and $228 to cool it. A 95% gas furnace would cost $1,846 for the same heat.

This guide also covers South Burlington, which share Burlington's weather station and climate data.

Nights at or below 0°F16 a year
Nights at or below 20°F73 a year
Days at or above 90°F8.2 a year
Average winter low16°F
Average summer high80°F
Electricity23.9¢ per kWh
Natural gas$1.74 per therm

Cheapest to run in Burlington

Ranked by yearly electricity cost in this climate, so the balance of heating and cooling efficiency is the one that matters here. Cold-climate certified models only.

Best 12,000 BTU mini-split

MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W

12,000 BTU mini-split · MSOP series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $601

For one large room.

Full specs and running cost

Best 24,000 BTU mini-split

SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG

24,000 BTU mini-split · SHC Series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $1,201

For open-plan floor or small home.

Full specs and running cost

Best 3-ton central heat pump

TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL

3 ton central · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 29.7
HSPF2: 12.2
Per year here: $2,104

For typical whole house.

Full specs and running cost

Running cost calculator for Burlington

Pre-filled with Burlington's climate and Vermont prices. Pick a model, tell it what you heat with today, and add your quote.

Heat pump $1,913/yrCosts more by $193/yrSee details ↓

1. Where you live

StateCityElectricity ¢ per kWh

Adjust heating and cooling hours

Filled in from your city's climate. Change them if you run the system much more or less than usual.

Cooling hours full-load hours per yearHeating hours full-load hours per year

2. The heat pump pick a model or type its ratings

Find a model (fills in the ratings below)

SEER2 cooling efficiencyHSPF2 heating efficiencyCooling capacity BTU/hHeating capacity BTU/h

3. What it replaces

Current heatingFurnace efficiency (AFUE %)Gas price, $/thermCurrent coolingOld AC rating SEER2 (10 ≈ 15+ years old)

4. Price replace the example with your quote

Installed price, $Rebates and incentives, $ utility, state

Heat pump, per year: $1,913
Current system, per year: $1,720
Costs more per year: $193
Payback: No payback
Net after 10 years: -$10,932

Cooling $129Heating $1,784Electricity used: 8,007 kWhSaved vs. a minimum-efficiency heat pump: $408

Estimates use the unit's rated SEER2 and HSPF2, full-load hours derived from NOAA 1991-2020 degree days, average residential electricity prices from the U.S. EIA (12 months to July 2026) and fuel prices from EIA (2025 for natural gas, week of 2026-10-05 for propane and heating oil). Very cold days that need backup heat are not modelled. Federal minimum for comparison: 14.3 SEER2 / 7.5 HSPF2.

More for Burlington

Top 5 12,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $601/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W	27.5	14.5	$601
Goodman MSH123G26MCAA	27.5	14.5	$601
Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP1	31.5	13.7	$627
Fujitsu AOUG12LZAS1	29.4	12.9	$666
Fujitsu AOUH12KZAH1	30.5	12.7	$674

All 12,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 24,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $1,201/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG	27.5	14.5	$1,201
MDV MOD30-24HFN10-M1X	22.3	13.5	$1,305
Arcoaire D5CSHAH24AAK	21.2	13.5	$1,311
Comfort-Aire A-VHP24SA-1	21.0	13.5	$1,312
Mainline ML24HP230NEXH-O	22.3	13.3	$1,323

All 24,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 3-ton central heat pumpsfrom $2,104/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL	29.7	12.2	$2,104
LG KUSXA361A	23.5	10.5	$2,458
Trane 5TWV0X36A1	21.0	10.5	$2,478
Lennox SL22KLV-036-230A	20.5	10.5	$2,482
Lennox EL21KLV-036-230A	20.0	10.4	$2,509

All 3-ton central heat pumps

Heat pump vs. gas, propane and oilgas is cheaper to run

Yearly cost to heat a typical house (36,000 BTU/h of heat, 2,800 full-load hours) at Vermont prices.

Natural gas furnace, 95% AFUE$1,846/yr
Natural gas furnace, 80% AFUE$2,192/yr
Heat pump (typical, 9.0 HSPF2)$2,676/yr
Propane furnace, 95% AFUE$4,369/yr
Heating oil, 85% AFUE$5,128/yr
Electric baseboard or furnace$7,058/yr

Electricity and natural gas: Vermont residential averages from the U.S. EIA; propane and heating oil: latest EIA weekly prices.

Month by monthpeak $525 in January

Heating and cooling degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals) and what a typical 3-ton heat pump costs in each month at 23.9¢/kWh.

Month	Heating DD	Cooling DD	Cost
January	1,367	0	$525
February	1,179	0	$453
March	1,016	0	$391
April	586	4	$226
May	236	32	$102
June	50	123	$62
July	6	235	$84
August	15	191	$72
September	134	66	$74
October	459	5	$178
November	773	0	$297
December	1,142	0	$439

What size heat pump for a Burlington home?5 ton for 2,000 sq ft

1,000 sq ft house2.5 ton · heating load 27,000 BTU/h
1,500 sq ft house3.5 ton · heating load 40,500 BTU/h
2,000 sq ft house5 ton · heating load 54,000 BTU/h
2,500 sq ft house5+ ton · heating load 67,500 BTU/h

Average insulation, 8 ft ceilings. Size calculator for your own home

Questions4

Do heat pumps work in Burlington winters?: Burlington averages 16 nights a year at or below 0°F, so pick a cold-climate certified model and check its output at 5°F. The average winter low is 16°F, and the heating season adds up to 6,960 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).
How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Burlington?: A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $2,676 of electricity a year for heating and $228 for cooling in Burlington, at the Vermont average of 23.9¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.
Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Burlington?: Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $2,676 a year with a typical heat pump versus $1,846 with a 95% gas furnace (Vermont averages: 23.9¢/kWh, $1.74/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.
What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Burlington?: With average insulation, roughly a 5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 27,600 BTU/h and the heating load 54,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Nearby cities

Climate: NOAA 1991-2020 normals, station BURLINGTON INTL AP (8 km away).