Do heat pumps work in Madison winters?

Madison averages 16 nights a year at or below 0°F, so pick a cold-climate certified model and check its output at 5°F. The average winter low is 15°F, and the heating season adds up to 7,138 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).

How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Madison?

A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $2,139 of electricity a year for heating and $179 for cooling in Madison, at the Wisconsin average of 18.8¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.

Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Madison?

Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $2,139 a year with a typical heat pump versus $1,123 with a 95% gas furnace (Wisconsin averages: 18.8¢/kWh, $1.04/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.

What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Madison?

With average insulation, roughly a 5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 27,600 BTU/h and the heating load 60,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Severe winters · Mild summers

Best heat pumps for Madison, WI

Madison averages 16 nights a year at or below 0°F, so pick a cold-climate certified model and check its output at 5°F.

A typical heat pump costs about $2,139 a year to heat a house here and $179 to cool it. A 95% gas furnace would cost $1,123 for the same heat.

Nights at or below 0°F16 a year
Nights at or below 20°F71 a year
Days at or above 90°F8.6 a year
Average winter low15°F
Average summer high80°F
Electricity18.8¢ per kWh
Natural gas$1.04 per therm

Cheapest to run in Madison

Ranked by yearly electricity cost in this climate, so the balance of heating and cooling efficiency is the one that matters here. Cold-climate certified models only.

Best 12,000 BTU mini-split

MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W

12,000 BTU mini-split · MSOP series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $479

For one large room.

Full specs and running cost

Best 24,000 BTU mini-split

SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG

24,000 BTU mini-split · SHC Series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $959

For open-plan floor or small home.

Full specs and running cost

Best 3-ton central heat pump

TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL

3 ton central · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 29.7
HSPF2: 12.2
Per year here: $1,680

For typical whole house.

Full specs and running cost

Running cost calculator for Madison

Pre-filled with Madison's climate and Wisconsin prices. Pick a model, tell it what you heat with today, and add your quote.

Heat pump $1,527/yrCosts more by $435/yrSee details ↓

1. Where you live

StateCityElectricity ¢ per kWh

Adjust heating and cooling hours

Filled in from your city's climate. Change them if you run the system much more or less than usual.

Cooling hours full-load hours per yearHeating hours full-load hours per year

2. The heat pump pick a model or type its ratings

Find a model (fills in the ratings below)

SEER2 cooling efficiencyHSPF2 heating efficiencyCooling capacity BTU/hHeating capacity BTU/h

3. What it replaces

Current heatingFurnace efficiency (AFUE %)Gas price, $/thermCurrent coolingOld AC rating SEER2 (10 ≈ 15+ years old)

4. Price replace the example with your quote

Installed price, $Rebates and incentives, $ utility, state

Heat pump, per year: $1,527
Current system, per year: $1,092
Costs more per year: $435
Payback: No payback
Net after 10 years: -$13,353

Cooling $101Heating $1,426Electricity used: 8,140 kWhSaved vs. a minimum-efficiency heat pump: $326

Estimates use the unit's rated SEER2 and HSPF2, full-load hours derived from NOAA 1991-2020 degree days, average residential electricity prices from the U.S. EIA (12 months to July 2026) and fuel prices from EIA (2025 for natural gas, week of 2026-10-05 for propane and heating oil). Very cold days that need backup heat are not modelled. Federal minimum for comparison: 14.3 SEER2 / 7.5 HSPF2.

More for Madison

Top 5 12,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $479/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W	27.5	14.5	$479
Goodman MSH123G26MCAA	27.5	14.5	$479
Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP1	31.5	13.7	$500
Fujitsu AOUG12LZAS1	29.4	12.9	$532
Fujitsu AOUH12KZAH1	30.5	12.7	$538

All 12,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 24,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $959/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG	27.5	14.5	$959
MDV MOD30-24HFN10-M1X	22.3	13.5	$1,041
Arcoaire D5CSHAH24AAK	21.2	13.5	$1,046
Comfort-Aire A-VHP24SA-1	21.0	13.5	$1,047
Mainline ML24HP230NEXH-O	22.3	13.3	$1,056

All 24,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 3-ton central heat pumpsfrom $1,680/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL	29.7	12.2	$1,680
LG KUSXA361A	23.5	10.5	$1,962
Trane 5TWV0X36A1	21.0	10.5	$1,978
Lennox SL22KLV-036-230A	20.5	10.5	$1,981
Lennox EL21KLV-036-230A	20.0	10.4	$2,003

All 3-ton central heat pumps

Heat pump vs. gas, propane and oilgas is cheaper to run

Yearly cost to heat a typical house (36,000 BTU/h of heat, 2,850 full-load hours) at Wisconsin prices.

Natural gas furnace, 95% AFUE$1,123/yr
Natural gas furnace, 80% AFUE$1,334/yr
Heat pump (typical, 9.0 HSPF2)$2,139/yr
Propane furnace, 95% AFUE$2,142/yr
Heating oil, 85% AFUE$4,862/yr
Electric baseboard or furnace$5,641/yr

Electricity and natural gas: Wisconsin residential averages from the U.S. EIA; propane and heating oil: latest EIA weekly prices.

Month by monthpeak $423 in January

Heating and cooling degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals) and what a typical 3-ton heat pump costs in each month at 18.8¢/kWh.

Month	Heating DD	Cooling DD	Cost
January	1,413	0	$423
February	1,175	0	$352
March	951	1	$285
April	562	2	$169
May	252	36	$86
June	47	137	$53
July	9	221	$66
August	20	166	$53
September	151	59	$62
October	480	6	$145
November	848	0	$254
December	1,232	0	$369

What size heat pump for a Madison home?5 ton for 2,000 sq ft

1,000 sq ft house2.5 ton · heating load 30,000 BTU/h
1,500 sq ft house4 ton · heating load 45,000 BTU/h
2,000 sq ft house5 ton · heating load 60,000 BTU/h
2,500 sq ft house5+ ton · heating load 75,000 BTU/h

Average insulation, 8 ft ceilings. Size calculator for your own home

Questions4

Do heat pumps work in Madison winters?: Madison averages 16 nights a year at or below 0°F, so pick a cold-climate certified model and check its output at 5°F. The average winter low is 15°F, and the heating season adds up to 7,138 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).
How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Madison?: A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $2,139 of electricity a year for heating and $179 for cooling in Madison, at the Wisconsin average of 18.8¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.
Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Madison?: Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $2,139 a year with a typical heat pump versus $1,123 with a 95% gas furnace (Wisconsin averages: 18.8¢/kWh, $1.04/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.
What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Madison?: With average insulation, roughly a 5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 27,600 BTU/h and the heating load 60,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Nearby cities

Climate: NOAA 1991-2020 normals, station MADISON DANE RGNL AP (9 km away).