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What size heat pump for a 2,500 sq ft house?

Short answer: 3.5 tons to more than 5 tons, depending on your climate and insulation. In a mixed climate like Atlanta: 4 tons.

By climate

Average insulation, 8 ft ceilings, three occupants.

Best 4-ton heat pumps

Compare all 4-ton heat pumps

Work it out for your home

Pre-filled with 2,500 sq ft. Pick your city and adjust insulation, sun and ceiling height.

Your space
Your climate
Mini-split size
42,000 BTU
Central / ducted size
3.5 ton
Cooling load
39,700 BTU/h
Heating load
37,500 BTU/h

This is more than one indoor unit can handle well - look at multi-zone systems or a ducted central heat pump.

See 42,000 BTU mini-splitsSee 3.5-ton central heat pumps

Rule-of-thumb estimate: cooling follows the ENERGY STAR room sizing table, heating uses typical BTU per square foot for the climate (NOAA 1991-2020 heating degree days). For a whole-house system, ask your installer for a Manual J load calculation.

More detail

Cooling and heating loads by climateBTU/h
  • Hot and dry (Phoenix)cooling 39,700 · heating 37,500
  • Hot and humid (Houston)cooling 39,700 · heating 37,500
  • Mixed (Atlanta)cooling 36,300 · heating 47,500
  • Cold (Chicago)cooling 34,600 · heating 67,500
  • Very cold (Minneapolis)cooling 31,200 · heating 75,000

Cooling follows the ENERGY STAR sizing table; heating uses BTU per sq ft for the climate (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).

How insulation changes the sizein Atlanta
  • Poor5 ton · heating 61,800 BTU/h
  • Average4 ton · heating 47,500 BTU/h
  • Good3.5 ton · heating 38,000 BTU/h
  • Very good3 ton · heating 30,900 BTU/h
Top 5 4-ton heat pumpsranked by SEER2
#ModelSEER2EER2HSPF2COP at 5°F
1Luxaire XH960E2C1122.012.09.02.00
2York YH960E2C1122.012.09.02.00
3LG KUSXB481A21.212.110.41.96
4Carrier 27VNA154A*030also sold as 1 other model number21.013.010.52.00
5Armstrong Air A7CP21V48P-**A20.512.29.62.20
Questions3
What size heat pump do I need for a 2,500 sq ft house?
About 3.5 tons to more than 5 tons. In a mixed climate like Atlanta the estimate is 4 tons (cooling load 36,300 BTU/h, heating load 47,500 BTU/h). Hot climates need more cooling capacity and cold climates more heating capacity, as the table shows.
How many BTU do I need for 2,500 square feet?
For cooling, roughly 39,700 BTU/h in a hot, dry climate and 31,200 BTU/h in a cold one. For heating, from 37,500 to 75,000 BTU/h depending on how cold winters get. Older, drafty homes need up to 30% more.
Is it better to oversize or undersize a heat pump?
Neither, but slight undersizing is usually less harmful for cooling. An oversized unit short-cycles and leaves the air clammy. In cold climates, size for the heating load and check the unit’s output at 5°F, or plan for backup heat on the coldest nights.

Other sizes

All sizing guides