Do heat pumps work in Fremont winters?

Winters in Fremont are mild, so heating efficiency matters less than cooling. The average winter low is 43°F, and the heating season adds up to 2,264 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).

How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Fremont?

A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $1,193 of electricity a year for heating and $210 for cooling in Fremont, at the California average of 33.1¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.

Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Fremont?

Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $1,193 a year with a typical heat pump versus $723 with a 95% gas furnace (California averages: 33.1¢/kWh, $2.12/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.

What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Fremont?

With average insulation, roughly a 2.5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 27,600 BTU/h and the heating load 30,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Mild winters · Mild summers

Best heat pumps for Fremont, CA

Winters in Fremont are mild, so heating efficiency matters less than cooling.

A typical heat pump costs about $1,193 a year to heat a house here and $210 to cool it. A 95% gas furnace would cost $723 for the same heat.

This guide also covers Sunnyvale, which share Fremont's weather station and climate data.

Nights at or below 0°F0 a year
Nights at or below 20°F0 a year
Days at or above 90°F9.2 a year
Average winter low43°F
Average summer high77°F
Electricity33.1¢ per kWh
Natural gas$2.12 per therm

Cheapest to run in Fremont

Ranked by yearly electricity cost in this climate, so the balance of heating and cooling efficiency is the one that matters here.

Best 12,000 BTU mini-split

MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W

12,000 BTU mini-split · MSOP series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $290

For one large room.

Full specs and running cost

Best 24,000 BTU mini-split

SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG

24,000 BTU mini-split · SHC Series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $580

For open-plan floor or small home.

Full specs and running cost

Best 3-ton central heat pump

TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL

3 ton central · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 29.7
HSPF2: 12.2
Per year here: $1,000

For typical whole house.

Full specs and running cost

Running cost calculator for Fremont

Pre-filled with Fremont's climate and California prices. Pick a model, tell it what you heat with today, and add your quote.

Heat pump $914/yrCosts more by $103/yrSee details ↓

1. Where you live

StateCityElectricity ¢ per kWh

Adjust heating and cooling hours

Filled in from your city's climate. Change them if you run the system much more or less than usual.

Cooling hours full-load hours per yearHeating hours full-load hours per year

2. The heat pump pick a model or type its ratings

Find a model (fills in the ratings below)

SEER2 cooling efficiencyHSPF2 heating efficiencyCooling capacity BTU/hHeating capacity BTU/h

3. What it replaces

Current heatingFurnace efficiency (AFUE %)Gas price, $/thermCurrent coolingOld AC rating SEER2 (10 ≈ 15+ years old)

4. Price replace the example with your quote

Installed price, $Rebates and incentives, $ utility, state

Heat pump, per year: $914
Current system, per year: $811
Costs more per year: $103
Payback: No payback
Net after 10 years: -$10,035

Cooling $119Heating $795Electricity used: 2,760 kWhSaved vs. a minimum-efficiency heat pump: $207

Estimates use the unit's rated SEER2 and HSPF2, full-load hours derived from NOAA 1991-2020 degree days, average residential electricity prices from the U.S. EIA (12 months to July 2026) and fuel prices from EIA (2025 for natural gas, week of 2026-10-05 for propane and heating oil). Very cold days that need backup heat are not modelled. Federal minimum for comparison: 14.3 SEER2 / 7.5 HSPF2.

More for Fremont

Top 5 12,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $290/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W	27.5	14.5	$290
Goodman MSH123G26MCAA	27.5	14.5	$290
Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP1	31.5	13.7	$299
Fujitsu AOUG12LZAS1	29.4	12.9	$318
Fujitsu AOUH12KZAH1	30.5	12.7	$321

All 12,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 24,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $580/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG	27.5	14.5	$580
MDV MOD30-24HFN10-M1X	22.3	13.5	$637
Arcoaire D5CSHAH24AAK	21.2	13.5	$643
Comfort-Aire A-VHP24SA-1	21.0	13.5	$644
Mainline ML24HP230NEXH-O	22.3	13.3	$645

All 24,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 3-ton central heat pumpsfrom $1,000/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL	29.7	12.2	$1,000
LG KUSXA361A	23.5	10.5	$1,175
Trane 5TWV0X36A1	21.0	10.5	$1,193
Lennox SL22KLV-036-230A	20.5	10.5	$1,197
LG KUSXB361A	22.0	10.3	$1,205

All 3-ton central heat pumps

Heat pump vs. gas, propane and oilgas is cheaper to run

Yearly cost to heat a typical house (36,000 BTU/h of heat, 900 full-load hours) at California prices.

Natural gas furnace, 95% AFUE$723/yr
Natural gas furnace, 80% AFUE$859/yr
Propane furnace, 95% AFUE$996/yr
Heat pump (typical, 9.0 HSPF2)$1,193/yr
Heating oil, 85% AFUE$1,644/yr
Electric baseboard or furnace$3,146/yr

Electricity and natural gas: California residential averages from the U.S. EIA; propane and heating oil: latest EIA weekly prices.

Month by monthpeak $237 in December

Heating and cooling degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals) and what a typical 3-ton heat pump costs in each month at 33.1¢/kWh.

Month	Heating DD	Cooling DD	Cost
January	443	0	$234
February	332	0	$175
March	285	1	$151
April	205	9	$112
May	116	26	$74
June	39	63	$52
July	11	95	$52
August	8	99	$53
September	18	93	$55
October	83	40	$63
November	275	2	$146
December	449	0	$237

What size heat pump for a Fremont home?2.5 ton for 2,000 sq ft

1,000 sq ft house1.5 ton · heating load 15,000 BTU/h
1,500 sq ft house2 ton · heating load 22,500 BTU/h
2,000 sq ft house2.5 ton · heating load 30,000 BTU/h
2,500 sq ft house2.5 ton · heating load 37,500 BTU/h

Average insulation, 8 ft ceilings. Size calculator for your own home

Questions4

Do heat pumps work in Fremont winters?: Winters in Fremont are mild, so heating efficiency matters less than cooling. The average winter low is 43°F, and the heating season adds up to 2,264 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).
How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Fremont?: A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $1,193 of electricity a year for heating and $210 for cooling in Fremont, at the California average of 33.1¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.
Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Fremont?: Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $1,193 a year with a typical heat pump versus $723 with a 95% gas furnace (California averages: 33.1¢/kWh, $2.12/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.
What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Fremont?: With average insulation, roughly a 2.5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 27,600 BTU/h and the heating load 30,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Nearby cities

Climate: NOAA 1991-2020 normals, station MOFFETT FEDERAL AIRFIELD (14 km away).