Do heat pumps work in Louisville winters?

Louisville sees about 20 nights a year at or below 20°F. A cold-climate certified model keeps the house warm without leaning on backup heat. The average winter low is 29°F, and the heating season adds up to 4,151 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).

How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Louisville?

A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $923 of electricity a year for heating and $326 for cooling in Louisville, at the Kentucky average of 14.0¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.

Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Louisville?

Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $923 a year with a typical heat pump versus $857 with a 95% gas furnace (Kentucky averages: 14.0¢/kWh, $1.37/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.

What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Louisville?

With average insulation, roughly a 4-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 30,600 BTU/h and the heating load 46,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Cold winters · Warm summers

Best heat pumps for Louisville, KY

Louisville sees about 20 nights a year at or below 20°F. A cold-climate certified model keeps the house warm without leaning on backup heat.

A typical heat pump costs about $923 a year to heat a house here and $326 to cool it. A 95% gas furnace would cost $857 for the same heat.

Nights at or below 0°F0.4 a year
Nights at or below 20°F20 a year
Days at or above 90°F38 a year
Average winter low29°F
Average summer high87°F
Electricity14.0¢ per kWh
Natural gas$1.37 per therm

Cheapest to run in Louisville

Ranked by yearly electricity cost in this climate, so the balance of heating and cooling efficiency is the one that matters here. Cold-climate certified models only.

Best 12,000 BTU mini-split

MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W

12,000 BTU mini-split · MSOP series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $258

For one large room.

Full specs and running cost

Best 24,000 BTU mini-split

SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG

24,000 BTU mini-split · SHC Series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $516

For open-plan floor or small home.

Full specs and running cost

Best 3-ton central heat pump

TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL

3 ton central · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 29.7
HSPF2: 12.2
Per year here: $868

For typical whole house.

Full specs and running cost

Running cost calculator for Louisville

Pre-filled with Louisville's climate and Kentucky prices. Pick a model, tell it what you heat with today, and add your quote.

Heat pump $800/yrYou save $247/yrSee details ↓

1. Where you live

StateCityElectricity ¢ per kWh

Adjust heating and cooling hours

Filled in from your city's climate. Change them if you run the system much more or less than usual.

Cooling hours full-load hours per yearHeating hours full-load hours per year

2. The heat pump pick a model or type its ratings

Find a model (fills in the ratings below)

SEER2 cooling efficiencyHSPF2 heating efficiencyCooling capacity BTU/hHeating capacity BTU/h

3. What it replaces

Current heatingFurnace efficiency (AFUE %)Gas price, $/thermCurrent coolingOld AC rating SEER2 (10 ≈ 15+ years old)

4. Price replace the example with your quote

Installed price, $Rebates and incentives, $ utility, state

Heat pump, per year: $800
Current system, per year: $1,047
You save per year: $247
Payback: Over 30 years
Net after 10 years: -$6,527

Cooling $185Heating $616Electricity used: 5,720 kWhSaved vs. a minimum-efficiency heat pump: $197

Estimates use the unit's rated SEER2 and HSPF2, full-load hours derived from NOAA 1991-2020 degree days, average residential electricity prices from the U.S. EIA (12 months to July 2026) and fuel prices from EIA (2025 for natural gas, week of 2026-10-05 for propane and heating oil). Very cold days that need backup heat are not modelled. Federal minimum for comparison: 14.3 SEER2 / 7.5 HSPF2.

More for Louisville

Top 5 12,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $258/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W	27.5	14.5	$258
Goodman MSH123G26MCAA	27.5	14.5	$258
Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP1	31.5	13.7	$261
Fujitsu AOUG12LZAS1	29.4	12.9	$278
Fujitsu AOUH12KZAH1	30.5	12.7	$279

All 12,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 24,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $516/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG	27.5	14.5	$516
MDV MOD30-24HFN10-M1X	22.3	13.5	$576
Mainline ML24HP230NEXH-O	22.3	13.3	$582
ComfortStar CHF3-24CD(O)	22.3	13.3	$582
Arcoaire D5CSHAH24AAK	21.2	13.5	$585

All 24,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 3-ton central heat pumpsfrom $868/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL	29.7	12.2	$868
LG KUSXA361A	23.5	10.5	$1,027
Trane 5TWV0X36A1	21.0	10.5	$1,055
LG KUSXB361A	22.0	10.3	$1,059
Lennox SL22KLV-036-230A	20.5	10.5	$1,062

All 3-ton central heat pumps

Heat pump vs. gas, propane and oilgas is cheaper to run

Yearly cost to heat a typical house (36,000 BTU/h of heat, 1,650 full-load hours) at Kentucky prices.

Natural gas furnace, 95% AFUE$857/yr
Heat pump (typical, 9.0 HSPF2)$923/yr
Natural gas furnace, 80% AFUE$1,017/yr
Propane furnace, 95% AFUE$1,827/yr
Electric baseboard or furnace$2,436/yr
Heating oil, 85% AFUE$2,941/yr

Electricity and natural gas: Kentucky residential averages from the U.S. EIA; propane and heating oil: latest EIA weekly prices.

Month by monthpeak $207 in January

Heating and cooling degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals) and what a typical 3-ton heat pump costs in each month at 14.0¢/kWh.

Month	Heating DD	Cooling DD	Cost
January	930	0	$207
February	738	0	$164
March	552	7	$124
April	244	36	$62
May	70	140	$45
June	3	313	$67
July	0	422	$89
August	0	391	$83
September	32	194	$48
October	232	38	$60
November	536	2	$120
December	812	0	$181

What size heat pump for a Louisville home?4 ton for 2,000 sq ft

1,000 sq ft house2 ton · heating load 23,000 BTU/h
1,500 sq ft house3 ton · heating load 34,500 BTU/h
2,000 sq ft house4 ton · heating load 46,000 BTU/h
2,500 sq ft house5 ton · heating load 57,500 BTU/h

Average insulation, 8 ft ceilings. Size calculator for your own home

Questions4

Do heat pumps work in Louisville winters?: Louisville sees about 20 nights a year at or below 20°F. A cold-climate certified model keeps the house warm without leaning on backup heat. The average winter low is 29°F, and the heating season adds up to 4,151 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).
How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Louisville?: A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $923 of electricity a year for heating and $326 for cooling in Louisville, at the Kentucky average of 14.0¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.
Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Louisville?: Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $923 a year with a typical heat pump versus $857 with a 95% gas furnace (Kentucky averages: 14.0¢/kWh, $1.37/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.
What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Louisville?: With average insulation, roughly a 4-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 30,600 BTU/h and the heating load 46,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Nearby cities

Climate: NOAA 1991-2020 normals, station LOUISVILLE BOWMAN FLD (7 km away).