Do heat pumps work in Bowling Green winters?

Winters in Bowling Green are moderate - about 19 nights a year at or below 20°F - and any modern variable-speed heat pump handles them. The average winter low is 30°F, and the heating season adds up to 3,797 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).

How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Bowling Green?

A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $839 of electricity a year for heating and $341 for cooling in Bowling Green, at the Kentucky average of 14.0¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.

Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Bowling Green?

Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $839 a year with a typical heat pump versus $779 with a 95% gas furnace (Kentucky averages: 14.0¢/kWh, $1.37/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.

What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Bowling Green?

With average insulation, roughly a 3.5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 30,600 BTU/h and the heating load 38,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Moderate winters · Warm summers

Best heat pumps for Bowling Green, KY

Winters in Bowling Green are moderate - about 19 nights a year at or below 20°F - and any modern variable-speed heat pump handles them.

A typical heat pump costs about $839 a year to heat a house here and $341 to cool it. A 95% gas furnace would cost $779 for the same heat.

Nights at or below 0°F0.5 a year
Nights at or below 20°F19 a year
Days at or above 90°F47 a year
Average winter low30°F
Average summer high89°F
Electricity14.0¢ per kWh
Natural gas$1.37 per therm

Cheapest to run in Bowling Green

Ranked by yearly electricity cost in this climate, so the balance of heating and cooling efficiency is the one that matters here.

Best 12,000 BTU mini-split

MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W

12,000 BTU mini-split · MSOP series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $244

For one large room.

Full specs and running cost

Best 24,000 BTU mini-split

SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG

24,000 BTU mini-split · SHC Series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $488

For open-plan floor or small home.

Full specs and running cost

Best 3-ton central heat pump

TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL

3 ton central · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 29.7
HSPF2: 12.2
Per year here: $814

For typical whole house.

Full specs and running cost

Running cost calculator for Bowling Green

Pre-filled with Bowling Green's climate and Kentucky prices. Pick a model, tell it what you heat with today, and add your quote.

Heat pump $753/yrYou save $250/yrSee details ↓

1. Where you live

StateCityElectricity ¢ per kWh

Adjust heating and cooling hours

Filled in from your city's climate. Change them if you run the system much more or less than usual.

Cooling hours full-load hours per yearHeating hours full-load hours per year

2. The heat pump pick a model or type its ratings

Find a model (fills in the ratings below)

SEER2 cooling efficiencyHSPF2 heating efficiencyCooling capacity BTU/hHeating capacity BTU/h

3. What it replaces

Current heatingFurnace efficiency (AFUE %)Gas price, $/thermCurrent coolingOld AC rating SEER2 (10 ≈ 15+ years old)

4. Price replace the example with your quote

Installed price, $Rebates and incentives, $ utility, state

Heat pump, per year: $753
Current system, per year: $1,003
You save per year: $250
Payback: Over 30 years
Net after 10 years: -$6,500

Cooling $193Heating $560Electricity used: 5,380 kWhSaved vs. a minimum-efficiency heat pump: $189

Estimates use the unit's rated SEER2 and HSPF2, full-load hours derived from NOAA 1991-2020 degree days, average residential electricity prices from the U.S. EIA (12 months to July 2026) and fuel prices from EIA (2025 for natural gas, week of 2026-10-05 for propane and heating oil). Very cold days that need backup heat are not modelled. Federal minimum for comparison: 14.3 SEER2 / 7.5 HSPF2.

More for Bowling Green

Top 5 12,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $244/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W	27.5	14.5	$244
Goodman MSH123G26MCAA	27.5	14.5	$244
Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP1	31.5	13.7	$245
Fujitsu AOUG12LZAS1	29.4	12.9	$261
Fujitsu AOUH12KZAH1	30.5	12.7	$262

All 12,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 24,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $488/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG	27.5	14.5	$488
MDV MOD30-24HFN10-M1X	22.3	13.5	$546
Mainline ML24HP230NEXH-O	22.3	13.3	$552
ComfortStar CHF3-24CD(O)	22.3	13.3	$552
Arcoaire D5CSHAH24AAK	21.2	13.5	$555

All 24,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 3-ton central heat pumpsfrom $814/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL	29.7	12.2	$814
LG KUSXA361A	23.5	10.5	$966
Trane 5TWV0X36A1	21.0	10.5	$995
LG KUSXB361A	22.0	10.3	$997
Lennox SL22KLV-036-230A	20.5	10.5	$1,002

All 3-ton central heat pumps

Heat pump vs. gas, propane and oilgas is cheaper to run

Yearly cost to heat a typical house (36,000 BTU/h of heat, 1,500 full-load hours) at Kentucky prices.

Natural gas furnace, 95% AFUE$779/yr
Heat pump (typical, 9.0 HSPF2)$839/yr
Natural gas furnace, 80% AFUE$925/yr
Propane furnace, 95% AFUE$1,661/yr
Electric baseboard or furnace$2,214/yr
Heating oil, 85% AFUE$2,674/yr

Electricity and natural gas: Kentucky residential averages from the U.S. EIA; propane and heating oil: latest EIA weekly prices.

Month by monthpeak $190 in January

Heating and cooling degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals) and what a typical 3-ton heat pump costs in each month at 14.0¢/kWh.

Month	Heating DD	Cooling DD	Cost
January	860	0	$190
February	671	1	$149
March	497	7	$111
April	220	40	$57
May	59	150	$43
June	3	336	$69
July	0	456	$93
August	0	419	$85
September	24	217	$49
October	201	46	$54
November	502	4	$112
December	760	1	$168

What size heat pump for a Bowling Green home?3.5 ton for 2,000 sq ft

1,000 sq ft house2 ton · heating load 19,000 BTU/h
1,500 sq ft house2.5 ton · heating load 28,500 BTU/h
2,000 sq ft house3.5 ton · heating load 38,000 BTU/h
2,500 sq ft house4 ton · heating load 47,500 BTU/h

Average insulation, 8 ft ceilings. Size calculator for your own home

Questions4

Do heat pumps work in Bowling Green winters?: Winters in Bowling Green are moderate - about 19 nights a year at or below 20°F - and any modern variable-speed heat pump handles them. The average winter low is 30°F, and the heating season adds up to 3,797 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).
How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Bowling Green?: A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $839 of electricity a year for heating and $341 for cooling in Bowling Green, at the Kentucky average of 14.0¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.
Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Bowling Green?: Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $839 a year with a typical heat pump versus $779 with a 95% gas furnace (Kentucky averages: 14.0¢/kWh, $1.37/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.
What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Bowling Green?: With average insulation, roughly a 3.5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 30,600 BTU/h and the heating load 38,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Nearby cities

Climate: NOAA 1991-2020 normals, station BOWLING GREEN WARREN CO AP (2 km away).