Do heat pumps work in Nashville winters?

Winters in Nashville are mild, so heating efficiency matters less than cooling. The average winter low is 32°F, and the heating season adds up to 3,364 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).

How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Nashville?

A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $738 of electricity a year for heating and $376 for cooling in Nashville, at the Tennessee average of 13.7¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.

Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Nashville?

Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $738 a year with a typical heat pump versus $583 with a 95% gas furnace (Tennessee averages: 13.7¢/kWh, $1.14/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.

What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Nashville?

With average insulation, roughly a 3.5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 32,100 BTU/h and the heating load 38,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Mild winters · Hot summers

Best heat pumps for Nashville, TN

Winters in Nashville are mild, so heating efficiency matters less than cooling.

A typical heat pump costs about $738 a year to heat a house here and $376 to cool it. A 95% gas furnace would cost $583 for the same heat.

This guide also covers Murfreesboro, which share Nashville's weather station and climate data.

Nights at or below 0°F0.1 a year
Nights at or below 20°F14 a year
Days at or above 90°F54 a year
Average winter low32°F
Average summer high90°F
Electricity13.7¢ per kWh
Natural gas$1.14 per therm

Cheapest to run in Nashville

Ranked by yearly electricity cost in this climate, so the balance of heating and cooling efficiency is the one that matters here.

Best 12,000 BTU mini-split

Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP1

12,000 BTU mini-split · AIRSTAGE H-Series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 31.5
HSPF2: 13.7
Per year here: $229

For one large room.

Full specs and running cost

Best 24,000 BTU mini-split

SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG

24,000 BTU mini-split · SHC Series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $460

For open-plan floor or small home.

Full specs and running cost

Best 3-ton central heat pump

TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL

3 ton central · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 29.7
HSPF2: 12.2
Per year here: $759

For typical whole house.

Full specs and running cost

Running cost calculator for Nashville

Pre-filled with Nashville's climate and Tennessee prices. Pick a model, tell it what you heat with today, and add your quote.

Heat pump $705/yrYou save $183/yrSee details ↓

1. Where you live

StateCityElectricity ¢ per kWh

Adjust heating and cooling hours

Filled in from your city's climate. Change them if you run the system much more or less than usual.

Cooling hours full-load hours per yearHeating hours full-load hours per year

2. The heat pump pick a model or type its ratings

Find a model (fills in the ratings below)

SEER2 cooling efficiencyHSPF2 heating efficiencyCooling capacity BTU/hHeating capacity BTU/h

3. What it replaces

Current heatingFurnace efficiency (AFUE %)Gas price, $/thermCurrent coolingOld AC rating SEER2 (10 ≈ 15+ years old)

4. Price replace the example with your quote

Installed price, $Rebates and incentives, $ utility, state

Heat pump, per year: $705
Current system, per year: $888
You save per year: $183
Payback: Over 30 years
Net after 10 years: -$7,170

Cooling $213Heating $492Electricity used: 5,160 kWhSaved vs. a minimum-efficiency heat pump: $183

Estimates use the unit's rated SEER2 and HSPF2, full-load hours derived from NOAA 1991-2020 degree days, average residential electricity prices from the U.S. EIA (12 months to July 2026) and fuel prices from EIA (2025 for natural gas, week of 2026-10-05 for propane and heating oil). Very cold days that need backup heat are not modelled. Federal minimum for comparison: 14.3 SEER2 / 7.5 HSPF2.

More for Nashville

Top 5 12,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $229/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP1	31.5	13.7	$229
MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W	27.5	14.5	$230
Goodman MSH123G26MCAA	27.5	14.5	$230
Fujitsu AOUG12LZAS1	29.4	12.9	$244
Fujitsu AOUH12KZAH1	30.5	12.7	$244

All 12,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 24,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $460/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG	27.5	14.5	$460
MDV MOD30-24HFN10-M1X	22.3	13.5	$519
Mainline ML24HP230NEXH-O	22.3	13.3	$524
ComfortStar CHF3-24CD(O)	22.3	13.3	$524
Arcoaire D5CSHAH24AAK	21.2	13.5	$529

All 24,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 3-ton central heat pumpsfrom $759/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL	29.7	12.2	$759
LG KUSXA361A	23.5	10.5	$904
LG KUSXB361A	22.0	10.3	$935
Trane 5TWV0X36A1	21.0	10.5	$937
Lennox SL22KLV-036-230A	20.5	10.5	$944

All 3-ton central heat pumps

Heat pump vs. gas, propane and oilgas is cheaper to run

Yearly cost to heat a typical house (36,000 BTU/h of heat, 1,350 full-load hours) at Tennessee prices.

Natural gas furnace, 95% AFUE$583/yr
Natural gas furnace, 80% AFUE$693/yr
Heat pump (typical, 9.0 HSPF2)$738/yr
Propane furnace, 95% AFUE$1,786/yr
Electric baseboard or furnace$1,946/yr
Heating oil, 85% AFUE$2,466/yr

Electricity and natural gas: Tennessee residential averages from the U.S. EIA; propane and heating oil: latest EIA weekly prices.

Month by monthpeak $173 in January

Heating and cooling degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals) and what a typical 3-ton heat pump costs in each month at 13.7¢/kWh.

Month	Heating DD	Cooling DD	Cost
January	788	0	$173
February	606	1	$133
March	431	11	$97
April	180	52	$50
May	42	177	$45
June	1	363	$73
July	0	487	$98
August	0	456	$92
September	14	257	$55
October	165	62	$49
November	447	6	$99
December	691	1	$152

What size heat pump for a Nashville home?3.5 ton for 2,000 sq ft

1,000 sq ft house2 ton · heating load 19,000 BTU/h
1,500 sq ft house2.5 ton · heating load 28,500 BTU/h
2,000 sq ft house3.5 ton · heating load 38,000 BTU/h
2,500 sq ft house4 ton · heating load 47,500 BTU/h

Average insulation, 8 ft ceilings. Size calculator for your own home

Questions4

Do heat pumps work in Nashville winters?: Winters in Nashville are mild, so heating efficiency matters less than cooling. The average winter low is 32°F, and the heating season adds up to 3,364 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).
How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Nashville?: A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $738 of electricity a year for heating and $376 for cooling in Nashville, at the Tennessee average of 13.7¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.
Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Nashville?: Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $738 a year with a typical heat pump versus $583 with a 95% gas furnace (Tennessee averages: 13.7¢/kWh, $1.14/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.
What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Nashville?: With average insulation, roughly a 3.5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 32,100 BTU/h and the heating load 38,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Nearby cities

Climate: NOAA 1991-2020 normals, station NASHVILLE INTL AP (11 km away).