Do heat pumps work in Knoxville winters?

Winters in Knoxville are moderate - about 11 nights a year at or below 20°F - and any modern variable-speed heat pump handles them. The average winter low is 32°F, and the heating season adds up to 3,528 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).

How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Knoxville?

A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $765 of electricity a year for heating and $318 for cooling in Knoxville, at the Tennessee average of 13.7¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.

Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Knoxville?

Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $765 a year with a typical heat pump versus $605 with a 95% gas furnace (Tennessee averages: 13.7¢/kWh, $1.14/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.

What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Knoxville?

With average insulation, roughly a 3.5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 30,600 BTU/h and the heating load 38,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Moderate winters · Warm summers

Best heat pumps for Knoxville, TN

Winters in Knoxville are moderate - about 11 nights a year at or below 20°F - and any modern variable-speed heat pump handles them.

A typical heat pump costs about $765 a year to heat a house here and $318 to cool it. A 95% gas furnace would cost $605 for the same heat.

Nights at or below 0°F0.1 a year
Nights at or below 20°F11 a year
Days at or above 90°F37 a year
Average winter low32°F
Average summer high87°F
Electricity13.7¢ per kWh
Natural gas$1.14 per therm

Cheapest to run in Knoxville

Ranked by yearly electricity cost in this climate, so the balance of heating and cooling efficiency is the one that matters here.

Best 12,000 BTU mini-split

MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W

12,000 BTU mini-split · MSOP series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $224

For one large room.

Full specs and running cost

Best 24,000 BTU mini-split

SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG

24,000 BTU mini-split · SHC Series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $448

For open-plan floor or small home.

Full specs and running cost

Best 3-ton central heat pump

TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL

3 ton central · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 29.7
HSPF2: 12.2
Per year here: $746

For typical whole house.

Full specs and running cost

Running cost calculator for Knoxville

Pre-filled with Knoxville's climate and Tennessee prices. Pick a model, tell it what you heat with today, and add your quote.

Heat pump $690/yrYou save $149/yrSee details ↓

1. Where you live

StateCityElectricity ¢ per kWh

Adjust heating and cooling hours

Filled in from your city's climate. Change them if you run the system much more or less than usual.

Cooling hours full-load hours per yearHeating hours full-load hours per year

2. The heat pump pick a model or type its ratings

Find a model (fills in the ratings below)

SEER2 cooling efficiencyHSPF2 heating efficiencyCooling capacity BTU/hHeating capacity BTU/h

3. What it replaces

Current heatingFurnace efficiency (AFUE %)Gas price, $/thermCurrent coolingOld AC rating SEER2 (10 ≈ 15+ years old)

4. Price replace the example with your quote

Installed price, $Rebates and incentives, $ utility, state

Heat pump, per year: $690
Current system, per year: $839
You save per year: $149
Payback: Over 30 years
Net after 10 years: -$7,509

Cooling $180Heating $510Electricity used: 5,053 kWhSaved vs. a minimum-efficiency heat pump: $174

Estimates use the unit's rated SEER2 and HSPF2, full-load hours derived from NOAA 1991-2020 degree days, average residential electricity prices from the U.S. EIA (12 months to July 2026) and fuel prices from EIA (2025 for natural gas, week of 2026-10-05 for propane and heating oil). Very cold days that need backup heat are not modelled. Federal minimum for comparison: 14.3 SEER2 / 7.5 HSPF2.

More for Knoxville

Top 5 12,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $224/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W	27.5	14.5	$224
Goodman MSH123G26MCAA	27.5	14.5	$224
Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP1	31.5	13.7	$225
Fujitsu AOUG12LZAS1	29.4	12.9	$239
Fujitsu AOUH12KZAH1	30.5	12.7	$240

All 12,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 24,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $448/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG	27.5	14.5	$448
MDV MOD30-24HFN10-M1X	22.3	13.5	$502
Mainline ML24HP230NEXH-O	22.3	13.3	$507
ComfortStar CHF3-24CD(O)	22.3	13.3	$507
Arcoaire D5CSHAH24AAK	21.2	13.5	$510

All 24,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 3-ton central heat pumpsfrom $746/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL	29.7	12.2	$746
LG KUSXA361A	23.5	10.5	$886
Trane 5TWV0X36A1	21.0	10.5	$913
LG KUSXB361A	22.0	10.3	$914
Lennox SL22KLV-036-230A	20.5	10.5	$920

All 3-ton central heat pumps

Heat pump vs. gas, propane and oilgas is cheaper to run

Yearly cost to heat a typical house (36,000 BTU/h of heat, 1,400 full-load hours) at Tennessee prices.

Natural gas furnace, 95% AFUE$605/yr
Natural gas furnace, 80% AFUE$718/yr
Heat pump (typical, 9.0 HSPF2)$765/yr
Propane furnace, 95% AFUE$1,852/yr
Electric baseboard or furnace$2,018/yr
Heating oil, 85% AFUE$2,558/yr

Electricity and natural gas: Tennessee residential averages from the U.S. EIA; propane and heating oil: latest EIA weekly prices.

Month by monthpeak $174 in January

Heating and cooling degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals) and what a typical 3-ton heat pump costs in each month at 13.7¢/kWh.

Month	Heating DD	Cooling DD	Cost
January	803	0	$174
February	618	0	$134
March	452	5	$99
April	198	36	$50
May	53	143	$41
June	2	311	$63
July	0	420	$85
August	0	392	$79
September	17	221	$48
October	188	42	$49
November	482	3	$105
December	716	0	$155

What size heat pump for a Knoxville home?3.5 ton for 2,000 sq ft

1,000 sq ft house2 ton · heating load 19,000 BTU/h
1,500 sq ft house2.5 ton · heating load 28,500 BTU/h
2,000 sq ft house3.5 ton · heating load 38,000 BTU/h
2,500 sq ft house4 ton · heating load 47,500 BTU/h

Average insulation, 8 ft ceilings. Size calculator for your own home

Questions4

Do heat pumps work in Knoxville winters?: Winters in Knoxville are moderate - about 11 nights a year at or below 20°F - and any modern variable-speed heat pump handles them. The average winter low is 32°F, and the heating season adds up to 3,528 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).
How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Knoxville?: A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $765 of electricity a year for heating and $318 for cooling in Knoxville, at the Tennessee average of 13.7¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.
Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Knoxville?: Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $765 a year with a typical heat pump versus $605 with a 95% gas furnace (Tennessee averages: 13.7¢/kWh, $1.14/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.
What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Knoxville?: With average insulation, roughly a 3.5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 30,600 BTU/h and the heating load 38,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Nearby cities

Climate: NOAA 1991-2020 normals, station KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AP (17 km away).