Do heat pumps work in Grand Forks winters?

Grand Forks averages 51 nights a year at or below 0°F, so pick a cold-climate certified model and check its output at 5°F. The average winter low is 1°F, and the heating season adds up to 9,533 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).

How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Grand Forks?

A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $1,905 of electricity a year for heating and $66 for cooling in Grand Forks, at the North Dakota average of 12.5¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.

Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Grand Forks?

Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $1,905 a year with a typical heat pump versus $1,325 with a 95% gas furnace (North Dakota averages: 12.5¢/kWh, $0.92/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.

What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Grand Forks?

With average insulation, roughly a 5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 27,600 BTU/h and the heating load 60,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Severe winters · Mild summers

Best heat pumps for Grand Forks, ND

Grand Forks averages 51 nights a year at or below 0°F, so pick a cold-climate certified model and check its output at 5°F.

A typical heat pump costs about $1,905 a year to heat a house here and $66 to cool it. A 95% gas furnace would cost $1,325 for the same heat.

Nights at or below 0°F51 a year
Nights at or below 20°F117 a year
Days at or above 90°F8.6 a year
Average winter low1°F
Average summer high79°F
Electricity12.5¢ per kWh
Natural gas$0.92 per therm

Cheapest to run in Grand Forks

Ranked by yearly electricity cost in this climate, so the balance of heating and cooling efficiency is the one that matters here. Cold-climate certified models only.

Best 12,000 BTU mini-split

MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W

12,000 BTU mini-split · MSOP series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $408

For one large room.

Full specs and running cost

Best 24,000 BTU mini-split

SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG

24,000 BTU mini-split · SHC Series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $815

For open-plan floor or small home.

Full specs and running cost

Best 3-ton central heat pump

TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL

3 ton central · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 29.7
HSPF2: 12.2
Per year here: $1,443

For typical whole house.

Full specs and running cost

Running cost calculator for Grand Forks

Pre-filled with Grand Forks's climate and North Dakota prices. Pick a model, tell it what you heat with today, and add your quote.

Heat pump $1,307/yrCosts more by $183/yrSee details ↓

1. Where you live

StateCityElectricity ¢ per kWh

Adjust heating and cooling hours

Filled in from your city's climate. Change them if you run the system much more or less than usual.

Cooling hours full-load hours per yearHeating hours full-load hours per year

2. The heat pump pick a model or type its ratings

Find a model (fills in the ratings below)

SEER2 cooling efficiencyHSPF2 heating efficiencyCooling capacity BTU/hHeating capacity BTU/h

3. What it replaces

Current heatingFurnace efficiency (AFUE %)Gas price, $/thermCurrent coolingOld AC rating SEER2 (10 ≈ 15+ years old)

4. Price replace the example with your quote

Installed price, $Rebates and incentives, $ utility, state

Heat pump, per year: $1,307
Current system, per year: $1,124
Costs more per year: $183
Payback: No payback
Net after 10 years: -$10,833

Cooling $38Heating $1,270Electricity used: 10,433 kWhSaved vs. a minimum-efficiency heat pump: $269

Estimates use the unit's rated SEER2 and HSPF2, full-load hours derived from NOAA 1991-2020 degree days, average residential electricity prices from the U.S. EIA (12 months to July 2026) and fuel prices from EIA (2025 for natural gas, week of 2026-10-05 for propane and heating oil). Very cold days that need backup heat are not modelled. Federal minimum for comparison: 14.3 SEER2 / 7.5 HSPF2.

More for Grand Forks

Top 5 12,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $408/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W	27.5	14.5	$408
Goodman MSH123G26MCAA	27.5	14.5	$408
Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP1	31.5	13.7	$429
Fujitsu AOUG12LZAS1	29.4	12.9	$456
Fujitsu AOUH12KZAH1	30.5	12.7	$462

All 12,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 24,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $815/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG	27.5	14.5	$815
MDV MOD30-24HFN10-M1X	22.3	13.5	$880
Arcoaire D5CSHAH24AAK	21.2	13.5	$882
Comfort-Aire A-VHP24SA-1	21.0	13.5	$882
Mainline ML24HP230NEXH-O	22.3	13.3	$893

All 24,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 3-ton central heat pumpsfrom $1,443/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL	29.7	12.2	$1,443
LG KUSXA361A	23.5	10.5	$1,680
Trane 5TWV0X36A1	21.0	10.5	$1,686
Lennox SL22KLV-036-230A	20.5	10.5	$1,687
Lennox EL21KLV-036-230A	20.0	10.4	$1,705

All 3-ton central heat pumps

Heat pump vs. gas, propane and oilgas is cheaper to run

Yearly cost to heat a typical house (36,000 BTU/h of heat, 3,800 full-load hours) at North Dakota prices.

Natural gas furnace, 95% AFUE$1,325/yr
Natural gas furnace, 80% AFUE$1,573/yr
Heat pump (typical, 9.0 HSPF2)$1,905/yr
Propane furnace, 95% AFUE$2,532/yr
Electric baseboard or furnace$5,024/yr
Heating oil, 85% AFUE$6,942/yr

Electricity and natural gas: North Dakota residential averages from the U.S. EIA; propane and heating oil: latest EIA weekly prices.

Month by monthpeak $363 in January

Heating and cooling degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals) and what a typical 3-ton heat pump costs in each month at 12.5¢/kWh.

Month	Heating DD	Cooling DD	Cost
January	1,818	0	$363
February	1,523	0	$304
March	1,257	0	$251
April	731	0	$146
May	352	15	$73
June	90	79	$32
July	27	147	$31
August	49	112	$29
September	244	29	$54
October	678	2	$136
November	1,148	0	$229
December	1,618	0	$323

What size heat pump for a Grand Forks home?5 ton for 2,000 sq ft

1,000 sq ft house2.5 ton · heating load 30,000 BTU/h
1,500 sq ft house4 ton · heating load 45,000 BTU/h
2,000 sq ft house5 ton · heating load 60,000 BTU/h
2,500 sq ft house5+ ton · heating load 75,000 BTU/h

Average insulation, 8 ft ceilings. Size calculator for your own home

Questions4

Do heat pumps work in Grand Forks winters?: Grand Forks averages 51 nights a year at or below 0°F, so pick a cold-climate certified model and check its output at 5°F. The average winter low is 1°F, and the heating season adds up to 9,533 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).
How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Grand Forks?: A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $1,905 of electricity a year for heating and $66 for cooling in Grand Forks, at the North Dakota average of 12.5¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.
Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Grand Forks?: Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $1,905 a year with a typical heat pump versus $1,325 with a 95% gas furnace (North Dakota averages: 12.5¢/kWh, $0.92/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.
What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Grand Forks?: With average insulation, roughly a 5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 27,600 BTU/h and the heating load 60,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Nearby cities

Climate: NOAA 1991-2020 normals, station GRAND FORKS INTL AP (8 km away).