HVAC Rated
    Menu

      2.5-ton central heat pump · PERFORMANCE 16 SEER2 HP

      Carrier 27SPA631A**30

      Below average cooling and heating efficiency for a 2.5-ton central heat pump, but not rated for cold climates.

      Ranks #155 of 199 2.5 ton central heat pumps for cooling efficiency, and costs about $992 a year to run in a mixed climate like Atlanta.

      SEER2
      16.0 Cooling efficiency over a season
      Below average · beats 26%
      HSPF2
      8.0 Heating efficiency over a season
      Below average · beats 12%
      EER2
      13.0 Cooling efficiency on a 95°F day
      Very good · beats 89%
      Heat at 5°F
      14,000 BTU/h45% of its 47°F output
      Average · beats 51%

      A good fit if…

      • You want a choice of indoor units - 39 certified pairings.

      Think twice if…

      • You often see nights below 0°F - it is not cold-climate certified.
      • Cooling cost matters most - its SEER2 is below average for central heat pumps.
      • You mainly need heat - its HSPF2 is below average for central heat pumps.
      • Comfort and noise matter - a single-stage compressor runs only full-on or off.

      Calculate my running cost

      Details

      Specifications2.5 ton, R-454B
      General
      BrandCarrier
      Outdoor unit model27SPA631A**30
      SeriesPERFORMANCE 16 SEER2 HP
      TypeCentral heat pump
      Nominal size2.5 ton
      CompressorVariable-speed units run longer at low powerSingle stage
      RefrigerantR-454B
      Connected (smart) capableNo
      On the market sinceJuly 31, 2025
      Last certifiedJune 29, 2026
      Cooling
      SEER2Seasonal efficiency, higher is better16.0 (range 15.2-16.0)
      EER2Efficiency at 95°F outdoors11.7-13.0
      Cooling capacity27,400-29,400 BTU/h
      Heating
      HSPF2Seasonal efficiency, higher is better7.8-8.0
      Capacity at 47°F29,400-30,600 BTU/h
      Capacity at 17°F17,500-18,200 BTU/h
      Capacity at 5°F13,400-14,000 BTU/h
      COP at 5°F2.0 = twice as efficient as a space heater2.00-2.06
      ENERGY STAR cold climateNo
      Heating output as it gets colder45% kept at 5°F

      Every heat pump delivers less heat as the outdoor temperature drops. Certified output of its matchup with FJ5AN*C42L at the standard test temperatures, in BTU/h:

      Certified matchups39 indoor units

      The same outdoor unit scores differently with each indoor unit and furnace. Ask your installer for the AHRI reference number of the exact system you are quoted.

      Indoor unitFurnaceSEER2EER2HSPF2Heat @5°FAHRI ref.
      FJ5AN*C42L-16.013.08.013,400217683337
      F55AA*C42L-16.013.08.013,400217683338
      FMA5X30**AL-16.013.08.013,700217683592
      FM(C,U)5Z30**AL-16.012.58.013,400217683464
      FM(C,U)5Z36**AL-16.012.58.013,400217683496
      FMA5X36**AL-16.013.08.013,700217683624
      CAA**3721AM59TP6C100V21**2215.512.58.014,000217691444
      CAA**3721AM59TP7A100V21**2215.512.58.014,000217691556
      CAA**4321AM59SU5B100M21**2215.511.78.014,000217693082
      CAA**3721AM59SC2E080M21**2015.512.58.014,000217690821
      CAA**3721AM59SC2E100M21**2015.512.58.014,000217690844
      CAA**3721AM59SC2E100M21**2215.512.58.014,000217690869
      CAA**3721AM58CU*B040C17**1215.512.08.013,900217689952
      CAA**3721AM58CU*B080C21**2015.512.58.014,000217689996
      CAA**4321AM58CU*B040C17**1215.512.58.013,900217691799
      CAA**4321AM59TP7A100V21**2215.513.08.014,000217693500
      CAA**3721AM58S(B,C)*B090M21**2015.512.58.014,000217690159
      CAA**3721AM58S(B,C)*B110M21**2015.512.58.014,000217690184
      CAA**4321AM58CU*B080C21**2015.512.58.013,900217691843
      CAA**4321AM59SC2E080M21**2015.512.58.014,000217692717
      CAA**4321AM59SC2E100M21**2015.512.58.014,000217692740
      CAA**3721AM58SP*B110V21**2215.512.58.014,000217690269
      CAA**3721AM58SU*B080M21**2015.512.58.014,000217690339
      CAA**4321AM59SC2E100M21**2215.512.58.014,000217692767
      CAA**3721AM59SU5B100M21**2215.512.08.014,000217691172
      CAA**4321AM58S(B,C)*B110M21**2015.512.58.014,000217692062
      CAA**4321AM58S(B,C)*B090M21**2015.512.58.014,000217692037
      CAA**3721AM58SU*B060M17**1615.512.08.014,000217690314
      CAA**4321AM58SP*B110V21**2215.512.58.014,000217692149
      CAA**4321AM58SU*B060M17**1615.512.08.014,000217692196
      CAA**4321AM58SU*B080M21**2015.512.58.014,000217692223
      CAA**4321AM59TP6C100V21**2215.513.08.014,000217693382
      FM(C,U)5S36**AL-15.512.58.013,500218452489
      FM(C,U)5S30**AL-15.512.58.013,500218452470
      F55AA*B30L-15.512.57.813,400217683215
      FJ5AN*B30L-15.512.57.813,400217683214
      FEVA0036**+NAVA53601CK-15.512.57.813,400217702157
      FEVB0036**+NAVA53601CK-15.512.57.813,400217702184
      FMA5L30**AL-15.212.08.013,800217683528
      Yearly running cost in 10 large cities$859-$2,393

      At each state's average electricity price and the city's typical heating and cooling hours.

      Questions5
      What is the SEER2 rating of the Carrier 27SPA631A**30?
      The Carrier 27SPA631A**30 is rated at up to 16.0 SEER2 and 13.0 EER2 for cooling and up to 8.0 HSPF2 for heating. The exact figure depends on the indoor unit it is paired with; across its 39 certified matchups SEER2 ranges from 15.2-16.0.
      Is the Carrier 27SPA631A**30 good for cold climates?
      It is not cold-climate certified: none of its matchups meet the ENERGY STAR cold-climate criteria (a COP of at least 1.75 at 5°F among other limits). In places with frequent sub-zero nights, pick a cold-climate 2.5-ton model.
      How much does the Carrier 27SPA631A**30 cost to run per year?
      At its rated efficiency it costs about $859-$2,393 a year in electricity in large U.S. cities, depending on climate and local rates - for example $1,072 in Phoenix and $2,009 in Minneapolis. The calculator on this page works it out for your city and compares it with your current system.
      Which indoor units work with the Carrier 27SPA631A**30?
      ENERGY STAR lists 39 certified combinations for this outdoor unit. The highest-rated ones use FJ5AN*C42L, F55AA*C42L, FMA5X30**AL.
      What refrigerant does the Carrier 27SPA631A**30 use?
      It uses R-454B.

      Running cost and savings

      Pre-filled with this model. Pick your city and what you heat with today; everything else is optional.

      Heat pump $1,071/yrYou save $458/yrSee details ↓
      1. Where you live
      Adjust heating and cooling hours

      Filled in from your city's climate. Change them if you run the system much more or less than usual.

      2. The heat pump Carrier 27SPA631A**30
      3. What it replaces
      4. Price replace the example with your quote
      Heat pump, per year
      $1,071
      Current system, per year
      $1,529
      You save per year
      $458
      Payback
      24.0 years
      Net after 10 years
      -$6,423

      Cooling $642Heating $428Electricity used: 6,693 kWhSaved vs. a minimum-efficiency heat pump: $105

      Estimates use the unit's rated SEER2 and HSPF2, full-load hours derived from NOAA 1991-2020 degree days, average residential electricity prices from the U.S. EIA (12 months to July 2026) and fuel prices from EIA (2025 for natural gas, week of 2026-10-05 for propane and heating oil). Very cold days that need backup heat are not modelled. Federal minimum for comparison: 14.3 SEER2 / 7.5 HSPF2.

      Similar 2.5 ton models

      See all 199 2.5 ton central heat pumps, ranked

      Source: ENERGY STAR Certified Heat Pumps (U.S. EPA), certification of June 29, 2026. How we use the data.