Do heat pumps work in Centennial winters?

Centennial averages 5.1 nights a year at or below 0°F, so pick a cold-climate certified model and check its output at 5°F. The average winter low is 19°F, and the heating season adds up to 6,014 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).

How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Centennial?

A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $1,589 of electricity a year for heating and $158 for cooling in Centennial, at the Colorado average of 16.6¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.

Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Centennial?

Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $1,589 a year with a typical heat pump versus $982 with a 95% gas furnace (Colorado averages: 16.6¢/kWh, $1.08/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.

What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Centennial?

With average insulation, roughly a 5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 27,600 BTU/h and the heating load 54,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Severe winters · Mild summers

Best heat pumps for Centennial, CO

Centennial averages 5.1 nights a year at or below 0°F, so pick a cold-climate certified model and check its output at 5°F.

A typical heat pump costs about $1,589 a year to heat a house here and $158 to cool it. A 95% gas furnace would cost $982 for the same heat.

Nights at or below 0°F5.1 a year
Nights at or below 20°F60 a year
Days at or above 90°F32 a year
Average winter low19°F
Average summer high84°F
Electricity16.6¢ per kWh
Natural gas$1.08 per therm

Cheapest to run in Centennial

Ranked by yearly electricity cost in this climate, so the balance of heating and cooling efficiency is the one that matters here. Cold-climate certified models only.

Best 12,000 BTU mini-split

MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W

12,000 BTU mini-split · MSOP series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $361

For one large room.

Full specs and running cost

Best 24,000 BTU mini-split

SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG

24,000 BTU mini-split · SHC Series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $722

For open-plan floor or small home.

Full specs and running cost

Best 3-ton central heat pump

TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL

3 ton central · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 29.7
HSPF2: 12.2
Per year here: $1,262

For typical whole house.

Full specs and running cost

Running cost calculator for Centennial

Pre-filled with Centennial's climate and Colorado prices. Pick a model, tell it what you heat with today, and add your quote.

Heat pump $1,149/yrCosts more by $192/yrSee details ↓

1. Where you live

StateCityElectricity ¢ per kWh

Adjust heating and cooling hours

Filled in from your city's climate. Change them if you run the system much more or less than usual.

Cooling hours full-load hours per yearHeating hours full-load hours per year

2. The heat pump pick a model or type its ratings

Find a model (fills in the ratings below)

SEER2 cooling efficiencyHSPF2 heating efficiencyCooling capacity BTU/hHeating capacity BTU/h

3. What it replaces

Current heatingFurnace efficiency (AFUE %)Gas price, $/thermCurrent coolingOld AC rating SEER2 (10 ≈ 15+ years old)

4. Price replace the example with your quote

Installed price, $Rebates and incentives, $ utility, state

Heat pump, per year: $1,149
Current system, per year: $956
Costs more per year: $192
Payback: No payback
Net after 10 years: -$10,922

Cooling $89Heating $1,059Electricity used: 6,940 kWhSaved vs. a minimum-efficiency heat pump: $247

Estimates use the unit's rated SEER2 and HSPF2, full-load hours derived from NOAA 1991-2020 degree days, average residential electricity prices from the U.S. EIA (12 months to July 2026) and fuel prices from EIA (2025 for natural gas, week of 2026-10-05 for propane and heating oil). Very cold days that need backup heat are not modelled. Federal minimum for comparison: 14.3 SEER2 / 7.5 HSPF2.

More for Centennial

Top 5 12,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $361/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W	27.5	14.5	$361
Goodman MSH123G26MCAA	27.5	14.5	$361
Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP1	31.5	13.7	$376
Fujitsu AOUG12LZAS1	29.4	12.9	$400
Fujitsu AOUH12KZAH1	30.5	12.7	$405

All 12,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 24,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $722/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG	27.5	14.5	$722
MDV MOD30-24HFN10-M1X	22.3	13.5	$786
Arcoaire D5CSHAH24AAK	21.2	13.5	$790
Comfort-Aire A-VHP24SA-1	21.0	13.5	$791
Mainline ML24HP230NEXH-O	22.3	13.3	$797

All 24,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 3-ton central heat pumpsfrom $1,262/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL	29.7	12.2	$1,262
LG KUSXA361A	23.5	10.5	$1,476
Trane 5TWV0X36A1	21.0	10.5	$1,490
Lennox SL22KLV-036-230A	20.5	10.5	$1,493
Lennox EL21KLV-036-230A	20.0	10.4	$1,509

All 3-ton central heat pumps

Heat pump vs. gas, propane and oilgas is cheaper to run

Yearly cost to heat a typical house (36,000 BTU/h of heat, 2,400 full-load hours) at Colorado prices.

Natural gas furnace, 95% AFUE$982/yr
Natural gas furnace, 80% AFUE$1,166/yr
Heat pump (typical, 9.0 HSPF2)$1,589/yr
Propane furnace, 95% AFUE$2,379/yr
Electric baseboard or furnace$4,191/yr
Heating oil, 85% AFUE$4,384/yr

Electricity and natural gas: Colorado residential averages from the U.S. EIA; propane and heating oil: latest EIA weekly prices.

Month by monthpeak $275 in December

Heating and cooling degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals) and what a typical 3-ton heat pump costs in each month at 16.6¢/kWh.

Month	Heating DD	Cooling DD	Cost
January	1,029	0	$272
February	896	0	$237
March	750	0	$198
April	548	1	$145
May	303	15	$84
June	63	114	$45
July	4	251	$63
August	14	192	$51
September	127	62	$49
October	468	3	$124
November	771	0	$204
December	1,041	0	$275

What size heat pump for a Centennial home?5 ton for 2,000 sq ft

1,000 sq ft house2.5 ton · heating load 27,000 BTU/h
1,500 sq ft house3.5 ton · heating load 40,500 BTU/h
2,000 sq ft house5 ton · heating load 54,000 BTU/h
2,500 sq ft house5+ ton · heating load 67,500 BTU/h

Average insulation, 8 ft ceilings. Size calculator for your own home

Questions4

Do heat pumps work in Centennial winters?: Centennial averages 5.1 nights a year at or below 0°F, so pick a cold-climate certified model and check its output at 5°F. The average winter low is 19°F, and the heating season adds up to 6,014 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).
How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Centennial?: A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $1,589 of electricity a year for heating and $158 for cooling in Centennial, at the Colorado average of 16.6¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.
Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Centennial?: Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $1,589 a year with a typical heat pump versus $982 with a 95% gas furnace (Colorado averages: 16.6¢/kWh, $1.08/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.
What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Centennial?: With average insulation, roughly a 5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 27,600 BTU/h and the heating load 54,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Nearby cities

Climate: NOAA 1991-2020 normals, station DENVER CENTENNIAL AP (4 km away).